AfroPari Breaks Down The US Open 2026 Finals: Sabalenka vs the next world No.1, Zverev vs America’s great hope
On Saturday, Sabalenka and Rybakina battle it out for the women’s title, and on Sunday, Zverev and Shelton decide the men’s champion.
The 2026 US Open winners take home a record $5.5 million, with runners-up picking up $2.8 million.
But money and ranking points aren’t the only thing on the line. Settle in: AfroPari breaks down the historical context behind both finals and rates each player’s chances.
Women’s final: Sabalenka vs Rybakina
Aryna Sabalenka is into her third straight US Open final and going for a title hat-trick. The last player to pull that off was Serena Williams, back in 2012–2014 and nobody’s matched it since.
Sabalenka arrives on a 20-match winning streak at this tournament, plus a record nobody else holds in the Open Era: eight straight hard-court Grand Slam finals.
By her own account, losing last year’s Australian Open final to Madison Keys taught her to “tune out the noise” and judging by her win streak, that noise has stayed well off the court.
Elena Rybakina has her own big story. This is her first US Open final and fourth Slam final overall, but whatever happens on court, she becomes the new world No.1 from Monday regardless.
The head-to-head reads 10-7 in Sabalenka’s favour, but their Slam finals are dead even: 1-1. Rybakina took their last meeting, at the 2026 Australian Open final, so Sabalenka’s overall edge guarantees nothing.
AfroPari expects a tight one too: Sabalenka is priced at 1.754, Rybakina at 2.246. Styles collide head-on: Sabalenka’s power and constant pressure against Rybakina’s serve, which sometimes ends the rally before it even starts. This one won’t be boring!
Men’s final: Zverev vs Shelton
Alexander Zverev got past Karen Khachanov in three sets (6-3, 7-6, 7-6) to reach his third straight Slam final. Fresh off his Roland Garros 2026 title, the German is chasing his second major and goes in as favourite.
For Zverev, it’s also a return to the most painful final of his career. Back in 2020, he led Dominic Thiem two sets to love and served for the title – only to let it slip. Six years on, he’s back in a New York final, this time already a Grand Slam champion.
Shelton is writing his own piece of history. Beating Frances Tiafoe made him the first African American man in a US Open final since Arthur Ashe in 1972.
A win would also end a 23-year drought for American men at the majors – the last one to do it was Andy Roddick, on this very court, in 2003.
For Ben, this match is personal too. His grandmother Regina Ann, who backed his father (and current coach) Bryan’s own tennis career, passed away in March. “This final is for her,” Shelton said after his semi-final.
The numbers favour Zverev: five wins in five meetings, 10 sets won out of 11. AfroPari also has him as the narrow favourite: 1.713 against 2.318 on Shelton. But this will be their first-ever Grand Slam final, and Shelton will have the home crowd firmly behind him.
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Pick your favourite and stay with AfroPari till the very last game!
